Rethinking Growth: Why the Future of Progress Needs a Rethink

Rethinking growth? If you are a business person like me, this may feel like an odd and strangely relevant question at the same time, and a bit scary. If we don’t contribute to the growth and development we have strived to build over our whole careers, who are we then? What’s our mission and contribution?

Looking back at modern economic history, economic growth has been considered a proxy for progress for much of the last century. Rising GDP signalled thriving nations. Growing revenues indicated successful businesses. And ‘more’—always ‘more’—became the prevailing narrative across politics, economics, and business.

However, we may have reached a point where the concept of growth may need to be reconsidered.

As we increasingly bump up against the ecological ceilings of our planet and witness growing fractures in our social fabric, more profound questions emerge: What is growth really for? What do we truly value? What kind of future are we designing for? 

This piece explores the evolution of growth thinking, the rise of degrowth and post-growth paradigms, the mechanisms that drive growth, the critiques that surround it—and the shifting frontlines of the conversation.

The Growth Paradigm: A Brief Historical Perspective

As far as I recall from my studies of economic history in the early 1990s, Thomas Malthus suggested—already back in 1798—that population growth would eventually outpace food supply, leading to famine. While his predictions were premature, the underlying insight—that natural limits bound human activity—has turned out to be relevant.

The concept of continuous economic growth, however, is a relatively modern idea. It gained real traction during the Industrial Revolution, when mechanization rapidly increased productivity. After World War II, economic growth became the central political and economic objective, with GDP as the dominant metric of success.

The concept of GDP (Gross Domestic Product, i.e., the measurement we now associate most closely with economic growth) was first developed in the 1930s by Russian-born US economist Simon Kuznets in response to the Great Depression.

I’ve understood that the United States became the first country to apply GDP as a national accounting tool. Over time, GDP became widely adopted, and at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, it was established as the global standard for measuring economic progress.

“Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period. Consequently, GDP also measures the income earned from that production, or the total amount spent on final goods and services (less imports). This indicator is based on nominal GDP (also called GDP at current prices or GDP in value). As such, this indicator is less suited for comparisons over time, as developments are not only caused by real growth, but also by changes in prices and PPPs. This indicator is measured in US dollars and US dollars per capita (current PPPs).” (OECD definition)

GDP growth promised it all: rising living standards, poverty alleviation, innovation, even peace. And it delivered on many fronts!

Life expectancy increased!

Technology revolutionised our lives!

Global poverty declined!

What Actually Drives Growth?

Let’s step back for a moment and reflect on growth as a concept, in business and society.

As businesspeople, we all know that growth shows up as increased sales and can be fueled by initiatives such as innovation and market expansion. Growth attracts investors, funds R&D, and builds competitive advantage. And, we get rewarded for it! All of us have undoubtedly also witnessed how it can lead to short-termism and, not infrequently, to poor long-term decision-making.

Although I have studied economic history, I’m not an economist. Still, whether at the national or organisational level, I dare to say that the current growth metrics are fuelled by a number of interconnected forces:

• Labour force expansion – more people producing more goods and services.
• Capital accumulation – investment in infrastructure, machinery, and systems.
• Productivity improvements – more output per input, often via technology.
• Innovation – new ideas, products, and processes.
• Natural resource extraction for production – still foundational, though increasingly contested.
• Consumer demand and financial expansion – ongoing consumption, credit, and investment cycles.

You can read more about what fuels growth on Investopedia and elsewhere on the internet. You can get a quick overview of the GDP growth per country on the World Bank Group’s website and in its open data.

A Wake-Up Call

So, is there any downside to GDP growth? Life expectancy has increased; technology has revolutionised our lives; and global poverty has declined. What could possibly be wrong with that?

The warning signs and potential downsides of this view of growth have actually been around for quite some time.

In 1972, a group of MIT researchers led by Donella Meadows published The Limits to Growth, commissioned by the Club of Rome. Using systems dynamics modelling, they explored the interplay between population, industrial output, resources, pollution, and food systems.

Their message was clear: if current growth trajectories continued, the world would face ecological and economic collapse within the 21st century. Not a forecast, but a warning. At the time, the report was controversial. Critics called it alarmist. Mainstream economists largely dismissed it. But over time, real-world trends have validated its insights.

While Limits to Growth ignited global discussion, the growth paradigm held firm. Economists argued that the model failed to account for market adaptations, technological progress, and price mechanisms. Julian Simon, in The Ultimate Resource (1981), claimed that human ingenuity itself was limitless and would solve scarcity. Many development economists, too, warned against abandoning growth, especially in low-income countries where basic needs were still unmet.

The result? Even as environmental degradation worsens, and six out of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed, the prevailing assumption largely seems to remain: growth is necessary, inevitable, and desirable.

Emergent Alternatives: Degrowth and Post-Growth

Already in the early 2000s, amid growing concerns over climate breakdown, resource overshoot, and widening inequality, alternative economic paradigms began to take root.

Degrowth

The degrowth movement calls for a deliberate and equitable downscaling of material and energy throughput—especially in wealthy nations—to ensure ecological sustainability and social justice. It challenges the idea that more is always better and advocates for a shift toward sufficiency, care, and community. It calls for a reimagining of prosperity beyond consumption. Thought leaders such as Giorgos Kallis, Jason Hickel, and Timothée Parrique argue that infinite growth on a finite planet is simply not viable.

Post-Growth

Less radical in tone, the post-growth perspective suggests that in mature economies, GDP growth should no longer be the central goal. Instead, it proposes economies oriented toward wellbeing, resilience, and regeneration. Thinkers like Tim Jackson (Prosperity Without Growth) and Kate Raworth (Doughnut Economics) offer visions for economies that thrive within both social foundations and planetary boundaries.

The Frontline Today—From Theory to Practice

Despite their growing influence, both degrowth and post-growth face legitimate questions. Degrowth is often criticised as politically unfeasible, particularly within societies dependent on jobs and pensions tied to growth. Some fear that reducing economic throughput could lead to instability and unemployment.

Post-growth, while more adaptable, is sometimes dismissed as too vague. What does “thriving beyond GDP” really mean in practice? How do we implement such models at scale within today’s institutional constraints?

And importantly, how do we balance the needs of low-income countries, which still require development, with the call for contraction in the Global North? These are not easy questions, but they are essential.

Despite inertia, signs of change are here:

Cities like Amsterdam and Brussels are putting Doughnut Economics into practice.

The Club of Rome’s Earth for All (2022) offers five key turnarounds—from energy to inequality—to steer us toward a more just and resilient future.

In 2023, the European Parliament even hosted its first Post-Growth Conference, opening up space for new policy thinking.

And in the business world? More leaders are exploring regenerative leadership and strategies, B Corps, and purpose-driven models, attempting to align profit with planetary and human wellbeing.

The rise of the Inner Development Goals (IDGs) also reflects growing awareness that the outer shift must be matched by inner transformation.

A Personal Reflection

At the heart of this shift is a recognition that our current definition of economic growth is not synonymous with planetary thriving. GDP can rise while ecosystems collapse. Profits can soar even as inequality and burnout spread.

As someone who has spent much of my life helping businesses grow, I find this both relevant and unsettling at the same time. Economic growth has long been our shared language of success—an engine for progress, possibility, and prosperity. But if that engine begins to lose its grip as the guiding star, it stirs something more personal.

This is not a call to abandon ambition or achievement, but an invitation to reimagine what progress can look like. Perhaps it’s less about climbing higher and more about growing wiser, deeper, and more connected to what truly matters.

The questions we need to ask ourselves are: What kind of future are we designing for? What do we truly value? 

Whether you identify with personal growth, degrowth, post-growth, or simply a desire for better, the invitation is the same:
On a finite planet, infinite economic extractive growth is not an option in the long run. But flourishing still is.

Elisabet Lagerstedt

Elisabet Lagerstedt is the founder and director of Future Navigators. As a trusted advisor, consultant, and Executive Coach, she helps business leaders navigate beyond business as usual to build Better Business and co-create a better future - through insight, strategy, innovation, and transformation. Elisabet is also the author of Better Business, Better Future (2022) and Navigera in i Framtiden (2018).